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2026-08-21

Cignal AI raises OCS market size forecast: expected to exceed $8 billion by 2030

August 18 news: Recently, market research firm Cignal AI further raised the market size forecast for OCS, expecting it to exceed $8 billion 2030. This is mainly driven by the increasingly clear Scale-up opportunities in GPU-based networks from NVIDIA and others, which also opens up new growth space forCS beyond Google's existing TPU Scale-out applications.

"OCS was originally Google's solo act, and we have been looking for the next customer or application scenario with large- procurement potential, and the answer is exactly the Scale-up architecture based on next-generation optical interconnects," said Scott Wilkinson, Chief Analyst for Optical Devices at Cignal AI. NVIDIA introduces optical interconnects into Scale-up through CPO and multi-rack architectures like NVL576, OCS will welcome a second massive market comparable to the current dominant TPU deployment OCS sales."

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The report also mentions that the scale-out of TPU networks remains the only large-scale application scenario currently and will dominate the market in the two to three years. Recent revenue is highly concentrated in Google, whose OCS technology is shifting from internal R&D to adopting third-party suppliers.

The scale-up of GPU networks an emerging application closely related to inter-rack optical interconnects, especially in NVIDIA's rack-scale development roadmap. NVIDIA plans to integrate OCS into its upcoming Rubin Ultra NVL56 architecture, with large-scale volume expected to be realized starting from 2028.

OCS revenue growth forecasts show a compound annual growth rate of over 30 from 2026 to 2030. The report details revenue and port shipments by application (scale-out, scale-up, backbone replacement, and others).The supplier landscape continues to expand, with silicon photonics startups entering the market. As Google shifts from internal R&D to building a competitive commercial supply chain, it has placed purchase with Lumentum, Coherent, and Huber Suhner; meanwhile, scale-up applications also provide a highly attractive entry point for silicon photonics suppliers.

The deployment ofCS is reshaping the demand for data center optical modules. Single-fiber FR optical devices and standards like OCI MSA are gaining favor, gradually replacing multi-fiber parallel DR optical devices; meanwhile, customized such as higher optical power and circulators adopted to support bidirectional transmission are also becoming increasingly common.